Should We Trust Computer-Aided Weapons Modeling?

Robert L. Stevenson, Ph.D.

Rational drug design relies on creating 3-D models of drug candidates and receptor active sites. The drug candidate is a ligand designed to dock to the active site of a biomolecule such as a protein, cell receptor, polynucleotide, etc., to modulate its activity. Examples of successful ligand designs are given in Ref. 1.

Computer modeling of biochemical processes is a particularly attractive facet of the systems biology effort. Systems biology integrates the chemistry of the various ’omics sciences to provide quantitative modeling of bioprocesses, yielding very complex flow charts.² Intuitively, systems biology should be useful for quantitatively describing the detailed chemistry of homeostasis and disease. And, now, we have the computer power that enables this process.

Complex science and engineering are also required for the virtual testing of nuclear weapons, as evidenced by the success of the Stockpile Stewardship Program (SSP).³ The challenge of the program has been to update the design and construction of new nuclear weapons while abiding by the restrictions of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), which prohibits testing at scale. In 1995, President Clinton committed the U.S. to maintain the nuclear arsenal without resorting to explosive tests. Secretary of State John Kerry expressed confidence that the nuclear weapons are safe, effective and reliable.³

Modeling technology is improving, primarily due to the new ability to work with big data. Modern weapons are much smaller than early models and show that subtle differences have a powerful impact on yield (blast strength) and radioactive contamination.⁴

Systems biology and weather prediction are examples in which the modeling results are accurate and useful. So, we are counting on SSP to be on target. Doing nothing was probably not tenable, but hopefully the definitive validation of SSP modeling never comes.

References

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/drug_design
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/systems_biology
3. http://nnsa.energy.gov/mediaroom/pressreleases/20th-year-stockpile-stewardship-program-celebrated-one-nation%E2%80%99s-greatest
4. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/nuclear_weapon_design